Predictious: Prediction Markets Are Coming Back... With Bitcoin

Predictious: Prediction Markets Are Coming Back... With Bitcoin

One of the more interesting applications of peer-to-peer finance is the concept of a prediction market - a market where people can speculate not on stocks and commodities, but rather real-life events. A prediction market might issue an asset that pays out $10 if Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 US presidential election, and $0 otherwise, and people would be free to either buy or sell the asset (short selling, or selling shares that you do not own to have a negative exposure, is just as easy as selling). The asset would then find a natural market price, say $2. If you think Hillary Clinton has....


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Can Bitcoin Help Predict the Future?

Fancy taking a bet on bitcoin? Prediction markets are offering people the chance to wager on the virtual currency's fortunes, among other things - and you can even use your bitcoins to do it. Prediction markets rely on the wisdom of the crowd, the theory being that people can predict things better when in groups. Although this doesn't work in some cases (just ask all those who bought real estate during the bubble), proponents say that it has merit, nonetheless. How prediction markets work. In a typical prediction market, users make a bet, in some form or another. On Fairlay, for example, a....

Augur Launches Alpha Version of Prediction Market Platform

Augur, a decentralized platform allowing individuals to create prediction markets on a vast array of topics, announced today that it was launching its alpha test."Traditionally, prediction markets have fallen short due to their need for volume in order to be valuable forecasting tools," explained Jeremy Gardner, the Director of Operations at Augur. "Having a global, unstoppable, blockchain-based prediction markets platform means anyone in the world with internet can connect to Augur."However, Augur is not, itself, a prediction market. Rather, it is open-source code for a prediction markets....

Ethereum Powered Prediction Market Platform, Augur, Launches Crowdsale

Ethereum and smart contracts have a lot of promise and Augur is one of those applications. Cryptocurrency, and the underlying technologies that come along with it, have the potential to disrupt entire markets, forcing them to either fade away or change dramatically in order to remain relevant. Prediction markets are one thing that decentralization could massively overhaul, eliminating points of failure as well as the possibility of cheating or corruption, while retaining the advantages prediction markets have in forecasting outcomes. The blockchain also secures customers’ funds, assuring....

How to Short Bitcoin

A whole lot of Bitcoin holders have made bank on the cryptocurrency's recent meteoric rise. But is it possible to make money from a falling Bitcoin price? Well, it is now! But let's start at the beginning, by defining terms. In trading, a bet that price will fall is called a "short." This is the opposite of a "long," which is buying something in the expectation of a future price rise. Probably a lot of people reading this are long cryptocurrency, or at least thinking of going long. The old joke for people who've bet the farm on a long position is that they're "long like John" (Holmes, the....

Princeton Researchers Developing Bitcoin-Based Prediction Market

A team of Princeton faculty members are developing a prediction market based on bitcoin transactions. Prediction markets are purely speculative markets created for the sole purpose of making various predictions, ranging from all sorts of business predictions to more mundane events, such as weather and various real-world events. Prediction markets are often frowned upon by the financial community, although a number of major companies are said to be using different prediction markets and techniques to gain a competitive edge. These include software companies like Google, chipmakers like....

Quotes

We don’t want to lead with 'anonymous.' I am definitely not making any such taunt or assertion [that] 'The developers expect that this will result in a stable-with-respect-to-energy currency outside the reach of any government.'

Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin Developer