Bitcoin Price Action in October: A Probabilistic Overview
October has traditionally been a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s price action. Historical data shows an enticing average price increase of 17% for the month (excluding the early, volatile years of Bitcoin). In pre-halving years, this average price fluctuation is slightly higher, around 21%. If the same price change occurs in 2023, Bitcoin could reach somewhere between $32,000 and $33,000 in October. But will this month follow the historical trend, or is a bearish turn still possible? Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Reach $170,000 in 2025 – Mathematical Model Predicts October Over Time....
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As usual we start with an overview of what last week’s conclusion stated: Once again Bitcoin price movements are proving to be extremely more difficult to forecast from both a technical and fundamental perspective. It should now be a fact that the great rally in early November was nothing more than traders moving the market. The evidence for that is now that things have settled the price is lower than it was prior to the start of the rally. This is not the type of pricing action that takes place during any kind of fundamental improvements. However, there is nothing wrong with traders....
The properties inherent to Bitcoin are deterministic, not probabilistic, and rely on the natural laws which make up our world.
So action has now matured throughout today's European session, and despite our proclamation earlier this morning that e could be in for some real volatility, the bitcoin price seems to have remained relatively stable throughout the day. We have had some up and down action, but nothing that has broken the range we defined in the first of our twice daily analyses. This said, however, over the last few weeks the big movements have pretty consistently come out of China, as that seems to be where the heavy volume buying and selling is rooted. As such, during tonight's Asian session, we might....
A little earlier on today we published a piece highlighting the action in the bitcoin price on Thursday evening, and noted that - despite the recent decline - there may be room for a temporary bullish bias during the European session. We offered up the levels we watching, and suggested that - if price reached these levels, we would use them as a bias inference. Now action has matured throughout the European session, and we are heading into the US afternoon, what are the levels we are looking at in the bitcoin price? Take a quick look at the chart. As you see, the levels we are looking at....
Here's a look at what we are focusing on in the bitcoin price this evening. That’s another day done, and once again it’s been a pretty interesting day of trading in the bitcoin price from an intraday perspective. Price just keeps giving us opportunities to get in and out of the markets, and our strategy has been ready to take advantage of these opportunities on pretty much every signal. We’ve had a couple of crossovers, so every box isn’t ticked, but when we compare action over this week and last to action at the end of September/early October, it’s night and day. We’re not done yet. The....