Global Economic Outlook: 2015 Year-End Market Positioning

A widely anticipated US dollar rally is caught between the proverbial Horns of the Bull, leaving the dollar in grid-lock. Meanwhile, the mainstream media turns up the volume of their cries of market woes – just as the decline pauses for a breather. The CBoE and CFTC release weekly summations of the speculative positioning of various classes of market participants. This week we consider the currency commitment of traders with an eye to understanding the pushes and pulls on the US dollar.

Market turmoil has intensified in February, and many analysts are predicting that the Fed may make a U-turn on their rates hike decision. In the flight to safety, Gold has extended its rally while Bitcoin looks to be going to ground. This week’s edition of Global Economic Outlook looks at the gold, bitcoin and US dollar charts. Gold has been in a long-term bear market since 2011 when it struck a top just below $2,000/oz. An advance from its December 2015 low, was cynically regarded as just another upward correction prior to additional decline, but surprisingly gold just kept going. Bitcoin....

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that the global economic outlook “has darkened significantly,” emphasizing that, regarding a global recession, “we cannot rule it out.” IMF Says Global Economic Outlook ‘Has Darkened Significantly’ Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), discussed the global economic outlook and the prospect of a global recession in an interview with Reuters Wednesday. Commenting on the global economy, the IMF....

Global markets are cautious going into today (Wednesday’s) Federal Open Market Committee rates announcement. While many believe that the Fed may now back out of rates increases, US employment gains and calmer markets suggest the FOMC may be preparing to crank rates again. Widespread criticism and market turmoil, at the start of 2016, accused the Fed of getting the timing of their rates tightening completely wrong. While the criticism is fair – that the Fed has, historically, managed to mangle policy with uncanny accuracy – there are some indications that the Fed may continue tightening,....

Market expectations of a December Fed rates hike are running high (at the time of writing the US Dollar Index had just breached 100 points). The question about why there is a need for higher interest rates is missing from the market and media discourse, so today's Global Economic Outlook considers the reasons for this central bank action. This post is powered by the Bitcoin Trading Network xbt.social - CCN29 and get 29USD off! Economic Indicators. World Indexes and Forex Rates. Commodities. In the Calendar This Week. Mon 23 November. US Fed Announcement. Tue 24 November. US Prelim GDP q/q....