Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns
In a thread on X, business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains where the global economy currently stands and what that means for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Describing what he terms a “short and shallow” full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025, Tomas believes this fleeting cycle was masked in part by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar. He explains, “The general gist of the theory was that we saw an abnormal, ‘short and shallow’ full business cycle over recent years that suppressed traditional PMI measures....
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Raoul Pal’s latest “Journey Man” episode brings back Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, for a sweeping tour of the liquidity landscape that has propelled risk assets like crypto for nearly three years. Both agree the global liquidity cycle is “late,” still advancing but increasingly mature, with its eventual peak most likely pushed into 2026 by policy engineering, bill-heavy issuance, and rising use of private-sector conduits. The investment implication running through the conversation is unambiguous: long-duration assets—crypto and technology equities—remain the primary....
According to comments from the creator of the stock-to-flow model, the familiar four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings may no longer be a sure guide for traders. Related Reading: You Want $1K XRP? You’ll Need Iron Nerves — Or ‘Mental Illness’, Analyst Says The analyst — known as PlanB — warned that using just three past cycles to predict future tops is risky, and he said the next peak is not guaranteed to fall 18 months after the last halving in October. Cycle Timing May Vary Widely PlanB told followers that the top could arrive in 2026, or 2027, or even 2028, and that he is more focused....
Bitcoin prices have dipped by over 10% since establishing a new all-time high (ATH) of $124,457 on August 14. As with all previous retracements after a new ATH, this recent correction has sparked much speculation on the market peak price. The Bitcoin Decay Channel, a market prediction model, has provided insights into the potential market top price zones for the present cycle. Related Reading: Safe Haven Split: Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Turns Negative For First Time In 6 Months Bitcoin Decay Channel Hints At $200K–$290K Top, Tips Cycle To Extend To 2026 In an X post on September 5, a....
BitMEX co-founder, Arthur Hayes, said that the crypto bull cycle is far from over, and that it might continue well into 2026. Arthur believes the US government spending program is not yet in motion and may only start mid-2026. This could mean the US may continue printing money, flooding the market with more liquidity. Amidst global instability, […]
The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000. Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near all-time high levels, combined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked. Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend....