Forecasting Bitcoin price using quantitative models, Part 2
A deep dive into the three bubbles Bitcoin has faced during its existence, and how the BTC halving phenomenon impacts the price. This is Part Two of a multipart series that aims to answer the following question: What is the “fundamental value” of Bitcoin? Part One is about the value of scarcity, Part Two — the market moves in bubbles, Part Three — the rate of adoption, and Part Four — the hash rate and the estimated price of Bitcoin.The market moves in bubblesIn recent months or even years, there’s been a lot of talk about the bubbles developing in the bond markets. Newspapers — both....
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To understand where the value of Bitcoin is headed, we need to study the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies in the world. This is Part Three of a multipart series that aims to answer the following question: What is the “fundamental value” of Bitcoin? Part One is about the value of scarcity, Part Two — the market moves in bubbles, Part Three — the rate of adoption, and Part Four — the hash rate and the estimated price of Bitcoin.The rate of adoptionIf more and more people desire a certain good, and the same amount of units are in circulation, the price will obviously have a tendency to rise.....
An intellectual attempt to estimate Bitcoin’s price, corrected according to the hash rate metric. This is Part Four of a multipart series that aims to answer the following question: What is the “fundamental value” of Bitcoin? Part One is about the value of scarcity, Part Two — the market moves in bubbles, Part Three — the rate of adoption, and Part Four — the hash rate and the estimated price of Bitcoin.Hash rate and the estimated price of BitcoinIn data mining, the term “hash rate” is a security metric. The greater the hashing power, the greater its safety and resistance to external....
There are many tools available today that can support our curiosity when it comes to gaining insight into past, present, and future events. The discrepancy, however, lies with the perspective that one can take when sifting through the vast amount of information available to us through the many sources. It may help to have a diverse background or experience so that one can understand and interpret the information more clearly — though this is not usually the case. This is where Augur, a decentralized forecasting platform, has stepped in to introduce a new way for people to share opinions....
Quantitative Easing and Bitcoin. The European Central Bank has recently announced a 1.1 trillion Euro sovereign bond purchasing program. This action in broadly referred to as Quantitative Easing. It is a monetary policy brought into existence by the Bank of Japan on March 19th, 2001. The first concept to understand in relation to Quantitative Easing is that no expert or policy-maker truly knows how this monetary experiment ends because it is a historically unprecedented action. A 15 year existence is a negligible amount of time in the history of human commerce. With that in mind, while....
Crypto is still at an early stage, but with NFTs and DeFi, blockchain is obviously the future of fintech and not just a bubble. To compare Bitcoin (BTC) to the Dutch tulip bulb bubble is to perpetuate a fallacy. Technology evolves more rapidly than nature, and decentralized networks have more financial utility than a bouquet. Bitcoin is a technology, tulips are plants, and no discerning person would take the comparison much further.Tulipmania, a 17th-century market bubble in which the price of the flower bulb increased due to speculation by Dutch investors, resulted in a major crash.....