Election 2020 Prediction Markets: Bettors Say Trump Lost Tuesday’s Debate
With the first presidential debate now smoldering behind us, the betting markets have picked their winner: Joe Biden.
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Emerging Ethereum-powered predictions platform Polymarket produced six-figure volume amid the first presidential debates. The first debate of the 2020 U.S. presidential election had no clear winner, but crypto-powered prediction platforms are having a field day. Election futures on crypto derivatives exchange FTX boomed, with the platform’s CEO reporting more than $4 million in open interest trying to pick the winner between Democrat Joe Biden, and Republican Donald Trump. On FTX, Trump’s brash debate performance got a big thumbs down and drove a 10% crash in the price of futures contracts....
Crypto-powered election futures have seen a wild 24-hours of trade, with decentralized platforms Augur and Polymarket posting record volumes. The 2020 U.S. presidential election has driven significant action across crypto-powered predictive markets.Ethereum’s co-creator Vitalik Buterin took to Twitter during the counting of votes to praise the success enjoyed by crypto-powered prediction platforms amid the election season, stating:“Regardless of who wins from here, I definitely think that the prediction markets have proven themselves more accurate than the polls/models this time....
October sees record volume for TRUMP and BIDEN markets three weeks ahead of the U.S. election.
Buterin asks whether crypto prediction markets reflect the wisdom of the crowd or are skewed by illiquidity and the political bias of their social base. On the eve of the United States presidential election, most mainstream polls are pointing to a highly likely Joe Biden victory, though this isn’t reflected in crypto prediction markets.For Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, the “big difference” between them presents something of a puzzle, and he’s offered three guesses as to why such a disparity has emerged.In what he posed as a pro-prediction market or favorable view, Buterin suggested....
During the first half of the year, betting portals that allow people to wager cryptocurrencies on the upcoming U.S. election had shown Donald Trump winning the election. However, after Tuesday evening’s Presidential Debate, betting markets like Cloudbet show Joe Biden’s chances of getting elected is favored by 61% over the incumbent Trump. Tuesday’s Presidential Debate was considered by many as one of the “worst debates” in the history of American leadership. However, many people still kept score on how each candidate did during the evening’s political....