From Cycles To Continuity: Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Pattern May Be Breaking
Bitcoin has lost more than 30% of its value since early October, triggering a sharp shift in market psychology. What was once viewed as a routine correction is increasingly being interpreted by analysts as a potential cycle top. Sentiment has deteriorated quickly, with fear and apathy replacing the optimism that dominated earlier in the year. Many investors are now positioning defensively, preparing for what they believe could be a prolonged bear market phase similar to past post-peak cycles. Related Reading: Who Really Sold The Dip? On-Chain Data Exposes Bitcoin’s True Sellers However, a....
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As Tuesday drew to a close, Bitcoin’s performance turned slightly bearish again after the crypto king reclaimed above the $113,000 mark in a short rebound. Bitcoin’s price action this year has seen a wild ride when compared to some past cycles. However, it is still less significant than most of the previous cycles. How Bitcoin’s […]
Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin “oversold RSI” roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026—an outlook he says would render the traditional “four-year cycle” framework obsolete. “A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittel wrote, sharing a chart of bitcoin’s average price path after RSI falls below 30, with the RSI breach marked as t=0. “This shows the average BTC....
A crypto analyst argues that Bitcoin (BTC) price history reveals a consistent macro cycle pattern characterized by long bull markets followed by shorter bear markets. This repeating structure has appeared across multiple market cycles and is now being used to frame expectations for Bitcoin’s current and future price movements. Bitcoin Macro Cycles Reveal Recurrent Pattern […]
Fidelity Digital Assets argues Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted enough that the familiar four-year boom-bust pattern and the brutal 80% drawdowns that often followed, may no longer be the default outcome. In a Feb. 24 research note titled “Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?” research analyst Zack Wainwright frames the call around a simple observation: Bitcoin is now a very different-sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs Bitcoin’s market cap at an all-time high of roughly $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, alongside signs of deeper liquidity and a steadier....
Bitcoin’s market cycles have often followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes those repeating structures may already be pointing toward the next major bottom. This is the foundational principle behind why Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: trade an asset long enough, and it begins to show a pattern memory. Right now, that memory is speaking. And it’s pointing to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000. Pattern Memory And Bitcoin’s Retracement History A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s....