How Crypto Transforms Prediction Markets

Augur, a decentralized platform allowing individuals to create prediction markets on a vast array of topics, announced today that it was launching its alpha test."Traditionally, prediction markets have fallen short due to their need for volume in order to be valuable forecasting tools," explained Jeremy Gardner, the Director of Operations at Augur. "Having a global, unstoppable, blockchain-based prediction markets platform means anyone in the world with internet can connect to Augur."However, Augur is not, itself, a prediction market. Rather, it is open-source code for a prediction markets....

Bloq Economist and Bitcoin Hivemind creator Paul Sztorc has been fascinated with prediction markets for many years, and he views these mechanisms for the creation of “event derivatives” as an essential public good. Although Sztorc had been a supporter of centralized prediction market InTradein the past, he now sees the need for a blockchain-based solution to allow these sorts of markets to proliferate around the world. Recently, Sztorc chatted with Adamant Research Editor in Chief Tuur Demeester about prediction markets, Bitcoin, sidechains and many other topics. During the discussion,....

Fancy taking a bet on bitcoin? Prediction markets are offering people the chance to wager on the virtual currency's fortunes, among other things - and you can even use your bitcoins to do it. Prediction markets rely on the wisdom of the crowd, the theory being that people can predict things better when in groups. Although this doesn't work in some cases (just ask all those who bought real estate during the bubble), proponents say that it has merit, nonetheless. How prediction markets work. In a typical prediction market, users make a bet, in some form or another. On Fairlay, for example, a....

Ethereum and smart contracts have a lot of promise and Augur is one of those applications. Cryptocurrency, and the underlying technologies that come along with it, have the potential to disrupt entire markets, forcing them to either fade away or change dramatically in order to remain relevant. Prediction markets are one thing that decentralization could massively overhaul, eliminating points of failure as well as the possibility of cheating or corruption, while retaining the advantages prediction markets have in forecasting outcomes. The blockchain also secures customers’ funds, assuring....

A team of Princeton faculty members are developing a prediction market based on bitcoin transactions. Prediction markets are purely speculative markets created for the sole purpose of making various predictions, ranging from all sorts of business predictions to more mundane events, such as weather and various real-world events. Prediction markets are often frowned upon by the financial community, although a number of major companies are said to be using different prediction markets and techniques to gain a competitive edge. These include software companies like Google, chipmakers like....