How Prediction Markets Could Guide Bitcoin's Future
While opinions on Bitcoin's future differ, most agree that the current scalability debate has become a mess. Trolling, misinformation, populism, vote manipulation, vocal minorities, censorship and other distractions have made it hard to find a signal above the noise. And importantly, if protocol development is going to be driven by what seems like....
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Augur, a decentralized platform allowing individuals to create prediction markets on a vast array of topics, announced today that it was launching its alpha test."Traditionally, prediction markets have fallen short due to their need for volume in order to be valuable forecasting tools," explained Jeremy Gardner, the Director of Operations at Augur. "Having a global, unstoppable, blockchain-based prediction markets platform means anyone in the world with internet can connect to Augur."However, Augur is not, itself, a prediction market. Rather, it is open-source code for a prediction markets....
Betting can be used to predict the future. That's the crazy idea behind prediction markets. Here's how they work and where cryptocurrency fits into the picture.
Fancy taking a bet on bitcoin? Prediction markets are offering people the chance to wager on the virtual currency's fortunes, among other things - and you can even use your bitcoins to do it. Prediction markets rely on the wisdom of the crowd, the theory being that people can predict things better when in groups. Although this doesn't work in some cases (just ask all those who bought real estate during the bubble), proponents say that it has merit, nonetheless. How prediction markets work. In a typical prediction market, users make a bet, in some form or another. On Fairlay, for example, a....
Warren Buffett is often called the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ because of his legendary ability to pick the right investments. Making sound decisions is thus important: it is based on good decisions that we can expect good outcomes. Collectively the markets can play the role of an oracle as well. What if we could devise a system which would use the collective wisdom of the markets to help form better policy or devise effective governance models that could actually deliver. Can we come up with a system that would allow poor countries to make better decisions for their upliftment or help people....
Prediction markets sound crazy. People “bet” on what the future will be, and the reported results end up accurate predicting the future. Truthcoin's Paul Sztorc, a decentralized prediction market pioneer, recently joined Epicenter Bitcoin to chat about how the future might look if these markets get off the ground. But first, he explained how prediction markets, such as Truthcoin, work. As Sztorc put it, “a prediction market is a market for buying and selling predictions just like you can buy and sell anything you want—orange juice or milk.” Users put their money where their mouth is; they....