Bitcoin futures enter backwardation for the first time in a year
Risk-averse BTC derivatives traders throw in the towel after futures contracts trade below the spot market price. Bitcoin's (BTC) month-to-date chart is very bearish, and the sub-$18,000 level seen over the weekend was the lowest price seen since December 2020. Bulls' current hope depends on turning $20,000 to support, but derivatives metrics tell a completely different story as professional traders are still extremely skeptical.BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingViewIt’s important to remember that the S&P 500 index dropped 11% in June, and even multi-billion dollar companies....
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Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when BTC lost 74% of its value, JPMorgan noted. JPMorgan’s cryptocurrency market analysts have pointed to the difference between Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot prices and BTC futures prices as a potential bearish sign for the market.In a Thursday note to clients, JPMorgan analysts led by global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote that the Bitcoin market has returned to backwardation — a situation when the spot price is above futures prices. The analysts said that the past month's correction in crypto markets saw Bitcoin....
Backwardation reflects a market condition wherein spot prices trade higher than future prices. Ether (ETH) bulls like a positive spread between its spot and ETH futures prices because the so-called contango reflects optimism about a higher rate in the future. But as of Aug. 1, the Ethereum futures curve slid in the opposite direction.Ethereum quarterly futures in backwardationOn the daily chart, Ethereum futures quarterly contracts, scheduled to expire in December 2022, have slipped into backwardation, a condition opposite to contango, wherein the futures price becomes lower than the spot....
Analysts search for bearish signals after the June BTC futures trade below spot exchange pricing. An unusual phenomenon called 'backwardation' is taking place in Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading, mainly the June contract, which expires on June 25. The fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. Futures should also trade at a 5% to 15% annualized premium on healthy markets, in line with the stablecoin lending rate. This situation is known as contango and is not exclusive to crypto markets.Whenever this....
Bitcoin bulls may get some respite from a derivatives market indicator that hints at a price bottom. As the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to establish support at $37,000 on Tuesday, the recent $30,000 lows may have been the bottom, suggests one derivatives market indicator that has a history of accurately predicting BTC/USD cyclical lows following its bear cycles. The last time it predicted a bottom was on Nov. 1, following which the cost to purchase one Bitcoin surged from $13,771 to as high as $64,899 on Coinbase.Anatomy of a bullish indicatorDubbed as “rolling basis,” the....
BTC traders are still searching for a bottom, but derivatives metrics show sentiment is negative and even the rally to $40,000 had little impact. Bitcoin (BTC) might have tested the $40,000 support in mid-July, but according to various derivatives metrics, there has not been a significant change in investor optimism. This situation either means that price is not what they are looking to mark the end of the current bear market, or that most traders are still underwater at $40,000.One of the best measures of optimism is the futures market premium, which measures the gap between longer-term....