Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40%
Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit....
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A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. Darkfost is looking at the distribution of supply across Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs, a way of tracking how much coin supply is sitting above or below cost basis. In his reading, that metric has reached a zone that has historically marked the boundary between....
Bitcoin’s bear-market turn can be traced to Oct. 10, 2025, a session widely described as the largest crypto derivatives liquidation event on record, with roughly $19 billion in futures positions forcibly unwound as prices slid sharply off their highs. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues the damage was structural as much as directional: open interest fell by about 70,000 BTC in a single day, wiping out months of leverage build-up and leaving speculation struggling to re-form. He claims that the Oct. 10 flush was “really the one that pushed BTC into a bear market” because of the speed....
On-chain data shows the amount of Bitcoin supply in loss has now reached levels similar to during the COVID crash and the 2018 bear market bottom. Bitcoin Supply In Loss Spikes Up Following The Latest Crash As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC supply in loss has set a new record for this year following the FTX disaster. The “supply in loss” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin that’s currently being held at some loss. This metric works by looking at the on-chain history of each coin in the circulating supply to see what price it....
Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns. In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is....
On-chain data shows Bitcoin hasn’t yet hit a bear market bottom as the supply in profit is still more than that in loss. Bitcoin Supply In Profit/Loss Says A Majority Of Network Is Still In Profit As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, past trend may suggest that the current BTC market still […]